XPeng's business abroad is already making a larger contribution, and its latest launches and robotics plans open further opportunities. The picture is mixed: the third quarter was the most XPeng has delivered in a quarter, inside its guidance and ahead of NIO and Li Auto, but deliveries through September were still 9.2% below last year's, and the first-half accounts showed a loss and a large operating cash outflow.
Those accounts end on 30 June, before the MONA L03 and G9L launches. The third-quarter results will give a first financial reading of the L03; the G9L began deliveries only nine days before the quarter ended, so the fourth quarter will be the first full quarter containing both.
What matters now is whether XPeng can turn reported demand into deliveries, make its technology a broader source of earnings, and fund its expansion while improving its cash generation. Dogotix adds a separately negotiated value for the robotics business — along with dilution and investor protections that shareholders need to understand.
Demand is running ahead of deliveries
On the 24 August earnings call, with the quarter still running, He Xiaopeng said new locked orders in the third quarter were up 50% on the second, a record. The MONA L03 led them: it took 46,859 firm orders in its first hour on 16 July, and in September it delivered more than 10,000. The GX, launched in May, delivered 7,224 in September, its third month above 7,000, and the G9L began deliveries on 22 September, with no order figure published.
Deliveries have grown more slowly. The third quarter's 118,390 were inside the 115,000–121,000 guidance, 15% more than the second quarter's and 2.1% more than a year earlier. That was more than NIO or Li Auto delivered, and the fastest rise of the three on the second quarter, though both grew faster on a year earlier (XPulse's account of the quarter). XPeng's MONA engineering head said chip supply, disrupted by demand from AI, held back L03 output in August before the line moved to two shifts. From January to September XPeng's worldwide deliveries were 9.2% below last year's. Through August its recorded domestic sales fell 21%, against 12.1% for China's passenger new-energy retail market as a whole (CPCA's count, which includes plug-in hybrids), so XPeng's recorded domestic sales fell faster than the wider market.
September's 41,256 deliveries were 5% more than August's and 0.8% fewer than a year earlier. For the fourth quarter He Xiaopeng expects sales to rise sharply and has set XPeng the challenge of a single month above 60,000 — about 45% more than September. A recall this summer covers 264,842 G6, P7+ and X9 cars, whose interior emergency door releases may be hard to find and operate if a severe crash cuts the power; the announced remedy is to add warning labels, and the regulator reports no accidents or injuries.
A quarter of the business is now abroad
XPeng said on the same call that it delivered more than 20,000 cars abroad in the second quarter, 81% more than a year earlier, at an average selling price above €40,000; its interim report puts overseas revenue at RMB8.23 billion in the first half, 62% more than a year earlier and a quarter of the total. XPeng says the L03 is on sale in Hong Kong, the Philippines, Australia, Indonesia and other markets, with deliveries starting market by market, and XPeng expects more than 40,000 overseas deliveries a quarter once they are under way in the fourth quarter. XPulse's own outside-China estimate, worldwide deliveries less recorded domestic sales, almost doubled from January to August; it is a subtraction, not a count of cars delivered to customers abroad.
China-built XPeng electric cars, range-extender versions included, pay the EU's 20.7% countervailing duty on top of its 10% import duty, and the Magna plant in Graz that builds several XPeng models for Europe was said in May to be running out of capacity. He Xiaopeng also said on 17 September that deliveries at home come first for the next four months.
Technology services make a major contribution to gross profit
Services and other revenue — technical research and development services for a carmaker that XPeng names on its calls as Volkswagen, plus parts and accessories — was 14% of second-quarter revenue and about half of gross profit, at a 75.1% margin. Across the first half, this revenue category included RMB680 million recognised for work performed in earlier periods. XPeng said in May it expects this year's licensing and technical-services revenue to be comparable with last year's.
The margin on its own cars was 12.1%, unchanged from the first quarter and down from 14.3% a year earlier, which XPeng attributes to the change of product generation. Carbon-credit deals are expected to bring in more than RMB1 billion, over RMB500 million of it this year (reported by Chinese media and confirmed by a vice-president; not yet in a filing), and He Xiaopeng says talks with other carmakers and non-carmakers will bring news at the Paris Motor Show or in the fourth quarter. Volkswagen's second model built with XPeng, the ID. UNYX 09, opened pre-sales on 24 September.
Cash use and financing need close attention
Operations used RMB11.72 billion in the first half, mostly to pay suppliers and build up parts and partly built cars — the largest half-year outflow on file. XPeng borrowed a net RMB7.05 billion, and its cash position was RMB40.48 billion at 30 June; in August it raised a further RMB885 million through asset-backed securities.
The net loss was RMB1.34 billion in the second quarter, and the Q2 earnings release gives no updated timetable for a return to profit; XPeng states that its liquidity is sufficient for the next twelve months. Guidance from two ministries dated 2 September encourages large carmakers to pay small and medium-sized suppliers in cash within 60 days; the filings reviewed do not provide enough detail to quantify the effect on XPeng.
Dogotix sets a separate value on robotics
XPeng's robotics business, including the IRON humanoid, is being moved into Dogotix, which agreed on 24 August to raise US$900 million in stages: US$600 million from IDG, Alibaba, Tencent and Gaorong; US$200 million from XPeng itself; and US$100 million from companies owned by He Xiaopeng (US$80 million) and co-president Brian Gu (US$20 million), who also receive warrants to buy up to US$400 million and US$100 million more at the same price. He Xiaopeng also holds about 69% of the votes in XPeng, other than on a few reserved matters.
XPeng's share depends on which step is counted: 81.97% after the round; 73.97% once it transfers 250.4 million of its Dogotix shares to the staff incentive plan; 68.41% if the warrants, the whole plan and an optional extra investor are all used. The outside investors can require Dogotix or XPeng to buy back their shares — at the higher of their price plus 8% a year compounded or 120% of it, plus any declared but unpaid dividends — if Dogotix has not listed within seven years of their first closing, or on other triggers. The filings reviewed do not confirm how much has closed; under the timetable, which the parties can change by agreement, IDG's last US$130 million is scheduled between late November and late February.
At the round's price Dogotix is valued at US$6.3 billion, and a 73.97% holding would be about US$4.7 billion — roughly half of XPeng's market value of about US$9.2 billion at the 30 September close (XPulse's arithmetic). That is an illustration, not a market value: the agreed price applies to preferred shares carrying protections, while XPeng's holding is mostly ordinary shares. IRON's production line opened on 8 September; XPeng aims for mass production by the end of 2026, first commercial use in its own stores and campuses, and deliveries to outside customers in retail and services in 2027. He Xiaopeng has led the robotics business himself since June.
Commercial progress differs across the new activities
Driver assistance. An updated version of the second-generation VLA (XOS 6.3.0) began rolling out on 22 September to Ultra and Ultra SE cars, with a distilled Lite version for Max cars that have a single Turing chip; it is part of what customers buy with the car. XPeng aims for approval in Europe in the first half of 2027.
Robotaxi. Built on the GX. In August XPeng obtained permission to test on designated Guangzhou roads with no safety operator in the driver's seat, and by then its Robotaxi had completed more than 2,000 internal test rides since employee testing began in June. XPeng said then that demonstration operations were counting down; no public launch had been found by 1 October. The goal for 2027 is passenger service with no safety operator on board, with leading ride-hailing platforms in China and abroad.
Flying cars. ARIDGE is not an XPeng subsidiary. It is an affiliate of He Xiaopeng in which XPeng holds minority preferred shares, bought in 2021 for about US$94 million, and to which XPeng sells services; XPulse's reading of the investment notes puts the holding's accounting value at approximately RMB1.43 billion at 30 June. Its aircraft is in batch trial production; China's aviation regulator put it on a faster certification track in July; its founder said in August that it cannot deliver this year and aims for next year.
What will test this
- 12 October — the G9L's European debut at the Paris Motor Show, with its European prices, and any technology partner beyond Volkswagen.
- Mid-October — China's September domestic sales (CPCA), and with them XPulse's estimate of September outside China.
- 1 November — October deliveries, the first month of the fourth quarter.
- November — third-quarter results (date not yet announced): a first financial reading of the L03, cash use, services revenue and any carbon credits, and the fourth-quarter guidance.
- Fourth quarter — the first full quarter with both the L03 and the G9L; the MONA L05 launch; L03 deliveries abroad building up; more than 40,000 overseas, as XPeng expects; and whether a single month passes 60,000, the challenge He Xiaopeng has set.
- November–February — scheduled further Dogotix subscriptions, subject to closing conditions and any agreed timetable changes.
- End-2026 and 2027 — IRON in mass production and with outside customers; Robotaxi passengers without an onboard safety operator; VLA approval in Europe; ARIDGE's type certificate and first deliveries.
Other sources: third-quarter orders and second-quarter sales abroad, from the 24 Aug call (21st Century Business Herald, via Sina) · L03 first-hour orders (Sina) · September by model, from XPeng's Chinese release (IT之家) · chip supply (IT Home) · CPCA retail (CnEvPost) · door-release recall (SAMR) · EU duty (Regulation 2024/2754) · Graz capacity (CnEvPost) · home deliveries first (Sina) · supplier payments (MIIT) · ARIDGE deliveries (Sina HK).
XPulse's own reading, revised when the evidence changes; not investment advice. It keeps apart what XPeng reported, what its management expects, what others report and what XPulse calculates — see the methodology.