Analyst roundup · Post-Q2 2026 · 24–31 August 2026
27 houses · 12 targets cut · 1 unchanged · no rating changes recorded
Q3 delivery guidance was the recurring concern.
Read roundup →Size of the target change4 of 13
Each entry keeps the house's own wording — 跑赢行业 is Outperform, 增持 is Overweight, 买入 is Buy — because flattening every scale into Buy / Hold / Sell loses what was actually said. An old target is never overwritten: it stays as the row above the new one.
The badge on each row says how close XPulse got to the research: Full note is the note itself, Reported note a report of it in the press, Referenced an aggregator's table or another secondary reference — which also rounds, so Citi's 25 August cut is $22.50 → $21.40 in the report of it but $23 → $21 in a table.
Hong Kong targets are set on the ordinary share, New York targets on the ADS, which is two of them. Where a Hong Kong target is shown, XPulse adds its ADS equivalent at the current rate, marked ≈ — XPulse's arithmetic, not the firm's published target.
After the Q2 2026 results 24 August 202638 notes
J.P. Morgan · Nick Lai
$24 → $11.50 −52%
Cautious on China autos into 2027; AI not yet rewarded
Cut to Neutral on a cautious view of China's car market: it expects demand to stay weak through the second half of 2026 and structural challenges, higher input costs among them, to persist into 2027, and that investors may not reward AI initiatives that bring no immediate earnings contribution.
JPMorgan downgrades Chinese EV company, XPeng (CNBC / Paulina Likos)
CLSA里昂
HK$80 ≈$20.40/ADS
About 40,000 overseas deliveries expected in Q4
Expects about 40,000 overseas deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2026, and sees exports remaining carmakers' main growth driver, with overseas capacity ramping up and localisation making their earnings more resilient. The report of the note does not give the rating or target it replaced.
里昂：中国车厂海外产能爬坡及本地化可增强盈利韧性 (Zhitong Finance via Investing.com)
Western Securities西部证券
China Securities (CSC Financial)中信建投
Q2 deliveries up 64.8% on the quarter; first-half gross margin 20.6%
Second-quarter deliveries of 103,295 were 64.8% up on the first quarter, and first-half gross margin reached 20.6%, 4.1 points better than a year earlier. The firm frames XPeng as turning into "a globally leading physical AI company", with robotaxi and humanoid robot work expanding.
Morgan Stanley摩根士丹利 · Tim Hsiao
HK$96 → HK$70 −27% ≈$17.85/ADS
Target cut 27% as XPeng's volume falls behind
Cut the target 27.1% while raising Nio's 18% on the same day, leaving the two almost level. XPeng had delivered 243,111 vehicles in the first eight months, down 10.5% year on year, and its own third-quarter guidance implies 37,900-43,900 in September.
Morgan Stanley Raises Nio Target 18% While Cutting XPeng 27% (EV / Cláudio Afonso)
Jefferies
Hong Kong HK$75.70 ≈$19.30/ADSNew York $19.40
Supply problems mask a catalyst-rich Q4
Sees the supply problem masking a rich set of fourth-quarter catalysts: September deliveries tracking to the guided 37,900-44,000, second-half vehicle margin roughly flat at about 12% with overseas above 20%, IRON in mass production from the end of 2026 at more than 1,000 units a month, and robotaxi near commercialisation. It also carries a US$19.40 target on the New York line. The report does not give the target it replaced.
UBS · Paul Gong
Hong Kong HK$47 ≈$11.99/ADSNew York $18 → $12 −33%
Initiates the Hong Kong line: robotics value already priced in
Initiated coverage of the Hong Kong line. A sum-of-the-parts valuation with 30% of the value in robotics — a business with no revenue yet — against a car business the firm sees weighed down by competition and weak margins. It credits XPeng with crystallising US$4.3bn of robotics value through the Dogotix financing, but calls the road to commercialisation long and uncertain among about 160 full-stack humanoid developers. This is an initiation, so there is no target it replaced.
UBS Initiates XPeng at 'Neutral' Citing Robotics Risks and Auto Weakness (EV / Matilde Alves)
Changjiang Securities长江证券
Soochow Securities东吴证券
Huatai Securities华泰证券
HK$86.27 ≈$22.01/ADS
Northeast Securities东北证券
SDIC Securities国投证券
HK$61.30 ≈$15.64/ADS
Guosen Securities国信证券
Kaiyuan Securities开源证券
Guotai Haitong Securities国泰海通证券
HK$60.21 ≈$15.36/ADS
Guosheng Securities国盛证券
HK$57.60 ≈$14.70/ADS
Guolian Minsheng Securities国联民生
DBS星展 · Raphael Tse
HK$109 → HK$76 −30% ≈$19.39/ADS
Q3 shortfall read as supply-led; revenue estimates cut
Called the second quarter largely in line, a stronger 20.7% gross margin offsetting weaker revenue, and read the third-quarter delivery guidance as supply-led rather than a demand problem, since new locked orders in July and August rose over 50% on the quarter. Cut 2026-2028 revenue estimates by 14%, 9% and 4% for a slower new-model ramp and a cloudy industry outlook; the target is pegged to 1.4 times rolling EV/sales. Sees the Dogotix financing as putting a clearer value on the robotics business.
Caitong Securities财通证券
Guohai Securities国海证券
Goldman Sachs高盛
Hong Kong HK$77 → HK$69 −10% ≈$17.61/ADSNew York $20 → $18 −10%
Q3 guidance short; still sees Q4 acceleration
Second-quarter net profit missed market expectations and the third-quarter delivery and revenue guidance fell short of forecasts, on a slower MONA L03 production ramp and a lower revenue contribution from Volkswagen Group. The firm still expects growth to accelerate in the fourth quarter and the robotics business to commercialise faster after its financing, and moved its loss forecasts to RMB3.7bn for 2026 and RMB1.2bn for 2027, with a RMB1bn profit in 2028. It also carries a US$18 target on the New York line.
CMS International (China Merchants Securities)招商證券國際
HK$103 → HK$92 −11% ≈$23.47/ADS
Loss forecasts raised sharply; still bullish on physical AI
Raised its net-loss forecasts for 2026, 2027 and 2028 by 45%, 133% and 262%, reading a weaker third-quarter product cycle and heavier spending on the new businesses. It stayed positive on the long-term value of the physical-AI work; the new target is 1.8 times FY2026 sales against a historical average of 2.1 times.
BOCOM International交银国际
HK$76.70 ≈$19.57/ADS
Q3 growth below expectations; 2026 volume forecast cut to 455,000
Third-quarter growth came in below what the firm had expected and it now sees the vehicle business reaching its profitability inflection in the fourth quarter rather than earlier. Volume forecasts for 2026-2028 were cut from 518,000/649,000/728,000 to 455,000/555,000/650,000 units. The report of the note describes it as a cut but does not give the previous target.
BOC International中銀國際
HK$83 → HK$76 −8.4% ≈$19.39/ADS
Delivery forecasts cut to 435,000 for 2026
Cut its delivery forecasts to 435,000 units for 2026 and 515,000 for 2027 and lowered its average selling price assumptions. It called the third-quarter guidance of 115,000-121,000 units below expectations while noting management still targets more than 60,000 deliveries a month in the fourth quarter, and said it has not yet modelled revenue or margin from the robotics business.
UBS
$18
Operating loss 12% wider than expected
The second-quarter operating loss of RMB1.143bn was 12% wider than the market expected, on lower revenue and higher SG&A, and the GAAP net loss of RMB1.337bn against an expected RMB433m was mostly FX losses of RMB125m and long-term investment losses of RMB140m. The report of the note does not give the target it replaced.
XPENG-W Tumbles ~10% at Half-day as Brokers Say 2Q Losses Beat, Bullish on Robotics (AASTOCKS)
Tiger Securities
$20 → $15 −25%
Cut on mixed Q2 results and the delivery outlook
Cut the target on mixed second-quarter results and the weaker near-term delivery outlook.
XPeng stock sinks 10% after weak Q3 guidance: analysts cut US ADR price targets (Invezz)
Sinolink Securities国金证券
Morgan Stanley摩根士丹利
HK$96 → HK$96 0% ≈$24.50/ADS
Robotics financing gives the market a first valuation benchmark
Second-quarter results were in line; the RMB1.3bn net loss was wider than the firm had modelled because of non-operating items, while operating profit was slightly better. It read the robotics financing as a positive catalyst that gives the market its first valuation benchmark for that business and starts to separate it from the group's own valuation. The target was left unchanged.
XPENG-W Tumbles ~10% at Half-day as Brokers Say 2Q Losses Beat, Bullish on Robotics (AASTOCKS)
Macquarie
$19 → $18 −5.3%
Cut on peer valuations, not on XPeng's own numbers
Cut the target on lower valuations among peers rather than on anything in XPeng's own numbers, and said volume momentum is rebuilding. The Hong Kong target came down 4% and the New York target 5%; the previous US$19 is AnaChart's record of the firm's May note.
J.P. Morgan · Nick Lai
$27 → $24 −11%
Citi
Hong Kong HK$87.70 → HK$83.60 −4.7% ≈$21.33/ADSNew York $22.50 → $21.40 −4.9%
Q3 outlook was a volume miss; sees Q4 monthly sales above 60,000
The same note carries a US$21.40 target on the New York line.
XPENG-W Tumbles ~10% at Half-day as Brokers Say 2Q Losses Beat, Bullish on Robotics (AASTOCKS)
CMB International招银国际 · Ji Shi
$21 → $16 −24%
CLSA里昂
HK$80 ≈$20.41/ADS
Robotics to add earnings momentum in FY2027
The second-quarter net loss of RMB1.3bn was in line, and the firm put the interest on the robotics business: IRON's first financing round topped US$900m at a US$6.3bn post-money valuation, with mass production expected by the end of 2026 at about 1,000 units a month and external sales planned for the first half of 2027. With the overseas vehicle business still growing, it expects robotics to add earnings momentum in FY2027. The report of the note does not give the target it replaced.
XPENG-W Tumbles ~10% at Half-day as Brokers Say 2Q Losses Beat, Bullish on Robotics (AASTOCKS)
CICC中金公司
HK$64.20 ≈$16.38/ADS
Rationale not publicly available.
CICC Sticks to Their Buy Rating for XPeng, Inc. Class A (9868) (TipRanks via Markets Insider)
BofA Securities · Ming Hsun Lee
$19 → $18 −5.3%
Volume estimates cut after the results and outlook
Cut the target after the second-quarter results and the third-quarter outlook, lowering its 2026, 2027 and 2028 volume estimates by 5%, 7% and 6%. A note on the Dogotix financing a day earlier had kept Buy and US$19 (HK$74 on the Hong Kong line).
XPeng price target lowered to $18 from $19 at BofA (The Fly via TipRanks)
Bernstein SocGen
$20 → $18 −10%
Target cut on a wider loss and rising R&D
Cut the target after the wider loss, pointing at rising research and development spending.
XPeng stock sinks 10% after weak Q3 guidance: analysts cut US ADR price targets (Invezz)
Barclays
$15 → $14 −6.7%
Q3 delivery guidance below forecast; L03 supply constrained
Q3 guidance of flat to low-single-digit year-on-year delivery growth against Barclays' own forecast of about 145,000 units, and supply-chain constraints on the L03 despite 46,900 non-refundable orders in the first hour after launch. The firm now sees mid-single-digit full-year delivery growth, against about 126% in 2025.
Barclays cuts XPeng stock price target on delivery growth concerns, Investing.com
BofA Securities · Ming Hsun Lee
HK$74 ≈$18.89/ADS
Robotics financing read as a long-term driver
Read the Dogotix financing as the point: about US$900m raised at a US$6.3bn post-money valuation, leaving XPeng with about 73.8% of the robotics subsidiary. The firm stayed positive on autonomous driving, the new vehicle lines and robotics as long-term drivers. Its results note the next day cut the New York target to US$18 from US$19; no Hong Kong target from that note has been found.
XPENG-W Tumbles ~10% at Half-day as Brokers Say 2Q Losses Beat, Bullish on Robotics (AASTOCKS)
After the Q1 2026 results 28 May 202612 notes
Morgan Stanley摩根士丹利
HK$96 → HK$96 0% ≈$24.49/ADS
MONA L03 launching in Europe at over twice its Chinese price
The MONA L03 is being launched in Europe at more than twice its Chinese price, so the firm expects overseas sales to lift group profitability.
Goldman Sachs高盛
Hong Kong HK$89 ≈$22.70/ADSNew York $23
Sees the Mona L03 settling at about 14,000 sales a month
The firm expects the Mona L03 to settle at about 14,000 sales a month and sees third- and fourth-quarter sales growing 28% and 59%. It also carries a US$23 target on the New York line.
Industrial Securities兴业证券
CMS International (China Merchants Securities)招商證券國際
HK$115 → HK$103 −10% ≈$26.28/ADS
Forecasts cut on cheaper mix and higher R&D; AI valuation holds
Positive on Robotaxi and robotics supporting XPeng's AI valuation, but cut its 2026-2028 revenue and earnings forecasts because a larger share of its sales is lower-priced cars and R&D spending is rising. The same sector note found China's car exports still strong while domestic demand recovered slowly.
招商证券国际：中国汽车品牌出口表现强劲 首选吉利汽车 (Zhitong Finance via Investing.com)
CITIC Securities中信证券
HK$86 ≈$21.95/ADS
Guosen Securities国信证券
Profit forecasts cut on memory-chip costs and research spending
Kept its revenue forecasts after the GX flagship SUV launch but cut profit forecasts for 2026-2028, citing memory-chip and other input costs and higher research spending.
Morgan Stanley摩根士丹利
HK$96 ≈$24.50/ADS
Watching second-half product cadence and the overseas plan
Reiterated the rating, watching whether management can hold the second-half product cadence, execute the overseas expansion and deliver on the non-vehicle businesses.
CMB International招银国际
HK$94 → HK$82 −13% ≈$20.93/ADS
Q1 loss about RMB250m worse than the firm had modelled
The first-quarter net loss of RMB1.8bn was about RMB250m worse than the firm had modelled. On management's guidance of a flat sequential gross margin and a 60-70% jump in volume, the firm still expects XPeng to reach profitability in the second half of 2026.
CICC中金公司
Hong Kong HK$90 ≈$22.97/ADSNew York $23
2026 non-GAAP profit forecast cut 25% on AI spend and chip costs
Cut its 2026 non-GAAP net profit forecast by 25% to RMB2.3bn on heavier AI spending and rising chip costs, while leaving 2027 unchanged. It also carries a US$23 target on the New York line.
中金：维持小鹏集团-W(09868)跑赢行业评级 目标价90港元 (Zhitong Finance via Investing.com)
J.P. Morgan · Nick Lai
$34 → $30 −12%
Second consecutive cut from the November 2025 target
The second consecutive reduction from the US$50 target set in November 2025, when the stock rose on XPeng's AI Day commitment to deploy three robotaxi models in 2026.
BofA Hikes XPeng's Price Target, JPMorgan and Citi Trim (EV / Matilde Alves)
Citi · Jeff Chung
$25.60 → $22.50 −12%
Cut on margin pressure and cost headwinds
Cut on margin pressure and cost headwinds while keeping the Buy rating the firm has held since March 2025.
BofA Hikes XPeng's Price Target, JPMorgan and Citi Trim (EV / Matilde Alves)
BofA Securities · Ming Hsun Lee
$24 → $25 +4.2%
Target raised on the autonomy products and GX orders
Raised the target on the autonomy products — the robotaxi, which entered production that month, and the IRON humanoid robot. Lifted 2026-2028 volume estimates 5% across all three years on better-than-expected GX orders, and raised its 2026 gross-margin assumption 1.3 points while trimming 2027 and 2028.
BofA Hikes XPeng's Price Target, JPMorgan and Citi Trim (EV / Matilde Alves)
XPulse publishes no target, no rating and no ranking of analysts — this is a record of what others published.