Q3 2026 earnings preview
Results 16 November 2026 · Estimate of 3 November · RMB million
XPeng has already reported a record 118,390 deliveries. On 16 November it reports what those cars earned. XPulse's model puts revenue near RMB23.0 billion and the net loss near RMB1.5 billion.
XPulse's estimate
central and likely rangeXPulse's likely range, low to high Central estimate XPeng's guidance, its own forecast Analysts Reported
DeliveriesReported · Q2 2026 103,295
118,390
Total revenueQ2 2026 19,744 · guided 21,700–23,400
23,014
23,170S&P average of 9 · 3 Nov
Vehicle salesQ2 2026 17,046
20,564
–
Services and othersQ2 2026 2,697
2,450
–
Gross marginQ2 2026 20.7% · share of every sale kept after its cost
18.5%
18.8%Goldman Sachs · 23 Oct
Vehicle marginQ2 2026 12.1% · share of each car’s price kept after building it
12.3%
about 12%Jefferies, second half · 14 Sep
Services marginQ2 2026 75.1% · share of services revenue kept after its cost
70.8%
–
Research and developmentQ2 2026 2,914
3,100
–
Selling and administrativeQ2 2026 2,496
2,775
–
Operating resultQ2 2026 −1,143
−1,416
−1,129S&P average of 5 · 2 Nov
Net resultQ2 2026 −1,337
−1,481
−861S&P average of 4 · 2 Nov
XPulse's estimate of Q4 2026 guidance, midpoint
Delivery guidanceOctober 50,237 · Q4 2025 116,249
157,000
–
Revenue guidanceQ4 2025 22,254
28,300
29,860S&P average of 7, the quarter's revenue · 3 Nov
XPulse's own estimate from its model, not XPeng's figures and not a recommendation.
Every analyst forecast · 6
S&P average of 93 Nov · Total revenue · Yahoo Finance
23,170S&P average of 73 Nov · Q4 2026 guidance, the quarter's revenue · Yahoo Finance
29,860S&P average of 52 Nov · Operating result · CN · Futu
−1,129S&P average of 42 Nov · Net result · CN · Futu
−861Goldman Sachs23 Oct · Gross margin · CN · AASTOCKS
18.8%Jefferies14 Sep · Vehicle margin, second half · CN · ifeng
about 12%XPulse's estimate of the net loss is RMB144 million larger than Q2's. But Q2 had a one-off. The interim report lists RMB680 million for work done in earlier periods, and XPulse reads all of it as Q2's. Take it out, and the estimate's operating loss is about RMB410 million smaller than Q2's. RMB285 million of that comes from the carbon credits and Volkswagen milestone payments the estimate assumes.
Biggest positive surprises
net result, RMB million−1,337S&P average of 4
−861
- What each car sold for+474
XPeng has already said how many cars it sold, so a better price per car goes straight to profit.
- Carbon credits+285
RMB200 million in the estimate; XPeng's vice-president expects over RMB500 million in 2026.
- Vehicle margin at the same prices+267
12.3% in the estimate; up to 13.6%.
- Other income, mostly subsidies+250
RMB150 million in the estimate; up to RMB400 million.
- Long-term investments+200
Nothing in the estimate; a gain on the shares XPeng holds in other companies.
- Volkswagen milestone payments+190
RMB100 million in the estimate; the payments come unevenly, and RMB300 million is possible.
Biggest negative surprises
net result, RMB million- What each car sold for−474
A lower price per car than the model assumes goes straight to the loss.
- Research and development−300
RMB3,100 million in the estimate; up to RMB3,400 million.
- Vehicle margin at the same prices−226
12.3% in the estimate; down to 11.2%.
- Long-term investments−200
Nothing in the estimate; a loss on the shares XPeng holds in other companies.
- Carbon credits−190
RMB200 million in the estimate; none of it may land in this quarter.
- Selling and administrative−175
RMB2,775 million in the estimate; up to RMB2,950 million.
Any one of the positive lines on its own would bring the loss below Q2's. None on its own reaches the S&P average.
Assumptions and sources
Vehicle sales: cars sold in China at 86% of their list price before tax, Q2's rate after discounts. Exports at what a car earned abroad in the first half of 2026. The sum averaged with where XPeng's own forecast points.
Every line below vehicle sales is XPulse's own call against XPeng's earlier quarters. Each amount is in the two lists above.
The ranges: the middle 80% of 20,000 runs with every line varied. For vehicle sales, the two routes' past misses, taken as partly moving together.
Q4 guidance: XPeng's habit of guiding at about 1.04 times three times its first month's deliveries, applied to October's 50,237. Revenue at those cars with more of the cheaper MONA models in the mix.
SourcesXPeng's Q2 2026 results release; XPeng's 2026 interim report; XPeng's Q3 2026 delivery release
Updated 3 November 2026