XPulse Analyst RoundupPost-Q2 2026
notes published 24–31 August 2026 · results 24 August 2026
Lower targets, ratings unchanged
In the week after XPeng's second-quarter results, twenty-seven tracked houses published. Twelve of the thirteen targets XPulse can compare were cut and one was left unchanged, no rating changes were recorded, and the third-quarter delivery guidance was the concern named most often.
27 houses · 13 comparable targets · 12 cut, 1 unchanged · 8 new with no previous target on file · 7 without a target · no rating changes recorded · 2 with no previous rating on file
Size of the target change
What the notes said
The third-quarter outlook drove the cuts, not the second-quarter result
Of the houses that gave a reason, most pointed at the delivery guidance rather than the quarter just reported. Citi called the third-quarter outlook a volume miss, Barclays had modelled roughly 145,000 units against guidance it read as flat to low-single-digit growth, Goldman Sachs named a slower MONA L03 ramp and a smaller Volkswagen contribution, BOC International cut its 2026 delivery forecast to 435,000 units, and Tiger Securities pointed at the weaker near-term delivery outlook. DBS read the same shortfall as supply-led rather than a demand problem.
Citi · Barclays · Goldman Sachs · BOC International · Tiger Securities · DBS
No rating changes were recorded while targets and forecasts moved
No rating change is recorded among the twenty-seven — CLSA's and UBS's previous ratings are not on file — while twelve targets were cut and several houses cut published forecasts: CMS International raised its 2026-2028 loss forecasts by 45%, 133% and 262%, Goldman Sachs moved its own to RMB3.7bn and RMB1.2bn, BofA Securities cut its 2026-2028 volume estimates by 5%, 7% and 6%, DBS its revenue estimates by 14%, 9% and 4%, and BOC International and BOCOM International both cut delivery forecasts.
Goldman Sachs · CMS International (China Merchants Securities) · BofA Securities · DBS · BOC International · BOCOM International
The robotics financing was read as a positive, including by houses cutting targets
Dogotix agreed US$900m of subscriptions — US$600m of it from outside investors — at a US$6.3bn post-money valuation the day the results landed. Morgan Stanley called it a first valuation benchmark that starts to separate robotics from the group's own valuation, CLSA expects it to add earnings momentum in FY2027, BofA Securities kept it among its long-term drivers, DBS sees it putting a clearer value on robotics, and Goldman Sachs expects commercialisation to speed up — while cutting its target 10.4%.
Morgan Stanley · CLSA · BofA Securities · DBS · Goldman Sachs
Individual views
Vehicle profitability slips to the fourth quarter. BOCOM International moved the vehicle business's profitability inflection to the fourth quarter and cut its 2026-2028 volume forecasts from 518,000/649,000/728,000 to 455,000/555,000/650,000.
A fourth quarter above 60,000 a month. Citi trimmed its target but said it expects monthly sales above 60,000 units in the fourth quarter.
Full-year growth decelerating sharply. Barclays expects mid-single-digit full-year delivery growth against about 126% in 2025, and noted the L03 was supply-constrained despite 46,900 non-refundable orders in its first hour.
A cut about the peer group, not about XPeng. Macquarie was explicit that it lowered its targets on weaker valuations among comparable companies rather than on anything in XPeng's own numbers, and said volume momentum is rebuilding.
The loss was wider than the market had modelled. UBS put the second-quarter operating loss 12% above market expectations on lower revenue and higher SG&A, and attributed most of the gap between the RMB1.337bn net loss and an expected RMB433m to FX and long-term investment losses.
Where they differed
How much the guidance should cost the valuation
A trim — 4.7% at Citi, 5.3% at Macquarie and BofA Securities, 6.7% at BarclaysCiti · Macquarie · BofA Securities · Barclays
A deep cut — 23.8% at CMB International, 25% at Tiger Securities, 30.3% at DBSCMB International · Tiger Securities · DBS
No change — Morgan Stanley at HK$96Morgan Stanley
Where the shares should trade at all
Buy, Outperform or Overweight — twenty-three of the twenty-seven
23 houses
Goldman Sachs · Citi · J.P. Morgan · Morgan Stanley · BofA Securities · CLSA · CICC · DBS · Macquarie · CMB International · CMS International (China Merchants Securities) · BOC International · BOCOM International · Caitong Securities · Guohai Securities · Guolian Minsheng Securities · Guosen Securities · Guosheng Securities · Guotai Haitong Securities · Kaiyuan Securities · Northeast Securities · SDIC Securities · Sinolink Securities
Neutral, Market Perform or HoldUBS · Bernstein SocGen · Tiger Securities
Underweight, on decelerating full-year growthBarclays
How this roundup works
This roundup is frozen. It holds the notes published from the results day to the seventh day after them, and nothing published later is ever added, so it stays a record of what XPulse knew that week. Every note, with its source, is on Analysts.
Counts come from these rows at build time. One house acting once counts once, however many sources carried it or listings it named a target on. A comparable target is one where both the new figure and the one it replaced are known; a rating change needs the previous rating on file. Where XPulse has only a number, the row says so rather than inventing a reason. XPulse publishes no rating or target of its own and does not rank analysts. The averages are plain arithmetic on the targets listed here — the sample XPulse tracks, not a consensus.